Zimbabwe’s mining sector, a crucial contributor to the country’s export revenue, is poised for moderate growth this year, although it continues to face long-standing structural challenges. These include an unstable energy supply, fluctuating currency rates, and weakening global commodity prices, all of which hinder its potential.
The government’s forecast, as detailed in the 2025 National Budget Statement, aims for a 6% growth in the sector. However, despite some encouraging signs of stability in production for key minerals, industry leaders remain cautious, emphasising that meaningful reforms are still necessary for sustained growth.
Isaac Kwesu, the CEO of the Chamber of Mines of Zimbabwe, highlighted ongoing risks to the industry, stating that power supply issues, exchange rate volatility, and low prices for certain minerals continue to threaten progress. He expressed optimism that, barring these challenges, the sector could achieve the projected 6% growth outlined in the national budget.
After a tough 2024 marked by energy shortages and reduced investor confidence, the production of platinum group metals (PGMs), lithium, and gold is showing signs of recovery. Industry insiders anticipate improvements in toll processing capacity for PGMs in the latter half of the year, which is expected to enhance exports and bolster foreign currency earnings.
However, the energy crisis remains a critical issue, with persistent load-shedding and outdated infrastructure forcing many mining operations to rely on costly diesel generators and private power sources. Currency fluctuations also pose a significant concern, as the mining industry relies heavily on imported machinery and materials. Although recent measures to stabilise the currency have provided some relief, confidence in the system remains fragile.
Externally, global commodity prices, particularly for gold and chrome, have softened in early 2025, further dampening the industry’s earnings and delaying critical investment decisions. Despite these challenges, there is cautious optimism within the sector. The government has recommitted to accelerating energy partnerships with independent producers and is reportedly reviewing policies around mineral royalties to improve fiscal terms for investors.
Industry leaders are projecting a measured outlook, buoyed by stabilising production rates, renewed investor interest, and ongoing improvements in PGMs. Kwesu remains optimistic, suggesting that with favourable conditions, mining companies can meet their production targets and achieve the desired growth in 2025.
While recent years have seen disruptions in the PGM value chain, primarily due to limited smelting capacity and delays in exports, new investments in toll processing and refinery infrastructure are expected to begin operating later this year. This is anticipated to unlock significant value, alongside a global market recovery, particularly for gold and base metals.
Despite some remaining pressures, Zimbabwe’s mining sector is supported by strong fundamentals in battery minerals, especially lithium. As a result, the 2025 growth target remains within reach, although challenges remain that could impede full recovery.
