South Africa’s mining sector recorded a 2.4% year-on-year decline in December 2024, with platinum group metals (PGMs) and gold being the biggest contributors to the downturn.
According to the latest industry data, PGM production fell by 7.1%, subtracting 2.7 percentage points from the overall figure, while gold output dropped by 8.4%, contributing -1.1 percentage points.
In contrast, manganese ore production increased by 8.7%, adding 0.5 percentage points, while coal output rose by 2.5%, also contributing 0.5 percentage points to the overall production numbers.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, mining production fell 3.9% in December compared to November, following a flat performance in November and a 2.8% decline in October.
Despite eight of the 12 major mining subcomponents recording increased production on a monthly basis, PGMs, chrome, nickel, and iron ore suffered significant losses, according to Minerals Council South Africa.
Iron-ore production was hit particularly hard, dropping 16% month-on-month. The Council attributed this sharp decline to multiple train derailments on the Ore Export Channel (OEC) between Sishen in the Northern Cape and the Saldanha port.
Despite the December setback, South Africa’s total mining production rose by 0.4% in 2024, following 0.1% growth in 2023 and a steep 7.8% decline in 2022.
However, the sector remains far from pre-pandemic levels. The December mining output was still 9% lower than in 2019, highlighting the difficult operating environment caused by domestic inefficiencies and global economic headwinds, particularly depressed PGM prices.
According to Minerals Council chief economist Hugo Pienaar, a stronger mining sector recovery in 2025 will depend on stable electricity supply, improved rail and port logistics, better water provision, and local government efficiency.
Freight rail performance is also expected to gradually improve, with Transnet’s rail volumes forecast to rise beyond 170 million tonnes in 2024/25, compared to the 160-165 million tonnes estimated this year.
The industry is also anticipating the launch of South Africa’s new online mining cadastre system in the second half of 2025, which Pienaar believes will lay the groundwork for improved mining growth beyond next year.
While domestic constraints are slowly easing, Pienaar warned that the global economic landscape remains uncertain, particularly with the potential return of Trump-era trade tariffs.
He noted that if Trump’s tariff wars disrupt global trade and GDP growth, industrial metal prices could suffer. Gold prices, however, may benefit from continued economic uncertainty.
